The one caveat this year presents is that late planting will cause a late start to harvest. Only 34% of soybeans are dropping leaves versus a 59% average and corn maturity is 29% versus a 57% average. Will a delayed harvest cause a delayed seasonal low (right triangulation)? We remain confident that the seasonal low in soybeans occurred in mid-May and the seasonal low in corn will occur during the first week of October.
December cocoa prices on Friday rallied to a 1-3/4 month high and finished the week up sharply by +5.82%. Cocoa prices trended higher throughout the week as they extended their 3-week rally. The latest leg higher in cocoa prices was fueled by fund buying sparked by Wednesday’s report from Reuters that the Ivory Coast and Ghana are considering an output ceiling on cocoa production to support prices and discourage overproduction.
The gold market did indeed run out of steam with the double bearish divergence signals coming to fruition. December Gold reversed with a $72/oz drop in 5 days. Then, bounced up $38/oz and has stabilized since.